Guinan explained that it’s extremely difficult to determine an exact measurement of the sun’s size because “it’s a fuzzy surface.” “Uncertainty in the Earth’s rotation can also affect eclipse predictions on this level.” “(P)recise eclipse prediction has brought new attention to a tiny but real uncertainty about the size of the Sun,” NASA’s statement reads. And NASA also acknowledges that exact measurements of the eclipse path are difficult to pin down. Irwin did not immediately respond to an email request for comment Friday.īut few things in science are ever certain. The research hasn’t been thoroughly reviewed by scientists, Guinan said. And even if the NASA map is wrong, Irwin’s calculations indicate it’s only off by a couple thousand feet on the edges.Ī woman views a map showing the eclipse path during the Solar Eclipse Festival at the California Science Center in Los Angeles, California, on August 19, 2017, two days before the total eclipse on August 21. Recent questions around a potentially shifting path have focused on a new map calculated by Guildford, England-based software developer John Irwin and published to a webpage called Besselian Elements. Edward Guinan, a professor of astronomy and astrophysics at Villanova University. ![]() “I would never, never be near the edge of where that totality is because it’s a difference between night and day,” said Dr. “This difference would only affect cities on the very edge of the path of totality, where blanket predictions are difficult regardless - a few city blocks one way or the other could mean 20, 10, or 0 seconds of totality.”Īnd for viewing purposes, NASA scientists and other experts recommend that spectators head for the middle, rather than the perimeter, of the path anyway. ![]() “Calculations that use a slightly larger radius for the size of the Sun yield an eclipse path that is slightly narrower,” said NASA spokesperson Karen Fox in an emailed statement. NASA has not changed its predictions, but the space agency advises that there is some uncertainty involved in mapping the eclipse’s path. That means some cities on the edge of the route that were expecting to experience a second or two of total darkness might be left out. New map calculations have raised some concerns that the path of totality - where it’s possible to see the moon completely block out the sun - is slightly narrower than NASA calculated. If you’re planning to see the epic total solar eclipse that will dance across the skies of North America on Monday, you should aim to travel as close to the center of the celestial spectacle’s path as possible.
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